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Name: Ross Maller

Talk Title: Universally Limited Lifespans Despite Individual Heterogeneity

Abstract: Despite extensive analysis of biological and actuarial data over many years, and many suggested underlying mechanisms, there is still no agreement as to whether human lifetimes have a finite natural limit, or are potentially unbounded. Huang, Maller and Ning (Ins. Math. Econ. 2020) constructed lifetables separately for a total of 231,129 Netherlands females and 73,788 males aged 65+ born in 1-year cohorts from 1893 to 1908. They fitted to each cohort a model consisting of a Gompertz distribution up till a data determined threshold age, followed by a Pareto distribution for greater ages. In each of the 16 cohorts the best fitting Pareto had an estimated finite right endpoint which, however, varied over a range of around 110-118 years for the different cohorts. This leads us to propose a general population model which embodies a fine distinction: our model incorporates heterogeneity in life-lengths, such that lifetimes are finite individually, but unbounded overall. With this we discuss and are able to reconcile contradictions between some previous studies.

This talk is a contributed talk at EVA 2021.