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Name: Erich Fischer

Talk Title: Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes 

Abstract: Recent climate extremes have broken long-standing records  by large margins. Such extremes unprecedented in the observational period often have substantial impacts due to a tendency to adapt to the highest intensities, and no higher, experienced during a lifetime. Here we show climate models project not only more intense extremes but also events that break previous records by much larger margins. These record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of warming, are likely to occur  in the coming decades. We provide an analytical solution to show that the changes in probability of record-shattering extremes simulated by numerical climate models is well understood and can be accurately reproduced in a purely statistical approach. The increase in record-shattering extremes can be reproduced with an analytical solution assuming normally distributed random uncorrelated variables or assuming a non-stationary GEV distribution with time-varying location and scale parameter for the random variables.

This talk is an invited talk at EVA 2021. View the programme here.