Jonas Brehmer EVA Talk Preview
From Anna Munro on May 13th, 2021
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Name: Jonas Brehmer
Talk Title: Using scoring functions to evaluate point process forecasts
Abstract: Many decision makers in industry or public institutions rely on forecasts of certain random quantities when choosing among alternative actions and assessing the associated risks. If relevant events cannot be measured at fixed points, but occur randomly in space and/or time, point processes arise as natural models in many applications, e.g. epidemiology, seismology, or quantitative criminology. Such models are often used to create point process-based forecasts, for instance (conditional) intensities, or higher order summary statistics such as pair correlations. Usually, decision makers will face a number of different predictions concerning these quantities, making a comparison of their accuracy crucial for well-founded decisions.
This talk is an invited talk at EVA 2021. View the programme here.