Jordan Richards EVA Talk Preview
From Anna Munro
views
comments
From Anna Munro
This talk has captions. You can remove these by pressing CC on the video toolbar.
Name: Jordan Richards
Talk Title: Modelling the extremes of spatial aggregates of precipitation using conditional methods
Abstract: Fluvial flooding is not caused by high intensity rainfall at a single location, rather it is caused by the extremes of precipitation events aggregated over spatial catchment areas. Accurate modelling of the tail behaviour of such events can help to mitigate the financial aspects associated with floods, especially if river defences are built within specification to withstand an n-year event of this kind. Within an extreme value analysis framework, univariate methods for estimating the size of these n-year events are well studied and cemented in asymptotic theory. To complement these techniques, we develop a high-resolution spatial model for extreme precipitation by providing a fully spatial extension of the conditional approach for modelling multivariate extremes. We simulate realistic precipitation fields from this model and use univariate techniques to make inference about the extremal behaviour of aggregates over specified spatial domains. The challenge of zero precipitation data is overcome and further applications of the model are discussed. The model is fit to data from a convection permitting forecast model within the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). To complement these techniques, we develop a high-resolution spatial model for extreme precipitation by providing a fully spatial extension of the conditional approach for modelling multivariate extremes. We simulate realistic precipitation fields from this model and use univariate techniques to make inference about the extremal behaviour of aggregates over specified spatial domains. The challenge of zero precipitation data is overcome and further applications of the model are discussed. The model is fit to data from a convection permitting forecast model within the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18).
This talk is a contributed talk at EVA 2021. View the programme here.
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336, VAT Registration Number GB 592 9507 00, and is acknowledged by the UK authorities as a “Recognised body” which has been granted degree awarding powers.
Any views expressed within media held on this service are those of the contributors, should not be taken as approved or endorsed by the University, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the University in respect of any particular issue.
Unless explicitly stated otherwise, all material is copyright © The University of Edinburgh 2021 and may only be used in accordance with the terms of the licence.