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Name: Gabi Hegerl

Talk Title: Determining causes for the changing probability of weather and climate extremes

Abstract: As climate changes, the frequency and intensity of weather extremes is changing as well. Recent damaging extreme weather and climate events raise questions about the link between climate change and extreme events. Studies of past and recent extreme events highlight the unique factors that contribute to each event as well as common contributing factors, and how a changing climate changes their intensity and frequency. This talk gives examples of interpretation of observed extreme events and model projections, using methods from comparison of tendencies between physically based climate models and observations, use of very large, targeted ensembles of simulations, to analysis of analogue observed situations. It will be discussed how these methods can be combined to shed light despite data uncertainty and sparse sampling.

 This talk is a plenary lecture at EVA 2021.