This
presentation discusses examples of how regional climate risk can be
informed using attribution analyses of observed events, and considering
how such events may change in the future. I will introduce the topic
using examples, such as historic heat waves in the UK, and the
record-breaking heatwaves in the dustbowl period. Analogue methods can
be used to push past events into the future, and attribution results to
evaluate changes in frequency with evolving greenhouse gas forcing.
However, some risks don’t change linearly, with extreme events instead
breaching thresholds for adaptation of vegetation, or human health.
Understanding risk from climate extremes in a rapidly warming world
requires better understanding of the interactions of the climate system,
earth and human system.
Prof Hegerl is a professor in climate
change science in the school of Geosciences. She is Fellow of the Royal
Society, the Leopoldina, the Royal Society of Edinburgh, and of the
American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society. She has
received the Royal Society Wolfson Merit Award and the Hans Sigrist Prize of the University of Bern. She co-leads the World Climate Research Programme lighthouse activity ‘safe landing climates‘ ; and have co-led their Grand Challenge on Extremes.She
researches causes of climate change, including in temperature and
precipitation, from the recent period to the last millennium, and have
used this evidence to constrain future climate change.with a special
interest in climate extremes, for example, heat waves, compound extremes
and impacts of extremes.
You can hear more about her research here https://forecastpod.org/2018/12/19/episode-23-gabi-hegerl/
Website: https://blogs.ed.ac.uk/ghegerl/